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Tricky Issues Surface When Thinking About Cole Kmet's Contract Extension

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Vince Carbonneau
May 31, 2023  (8:49)
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When considering the likely candidates for contract renewals among the Chicago Bears, Cole Kmet tops the list. Given the depth of their roster at wide receiver and cornerback positions, the tight end spot could face a void if Kmet, a young and promising player, is lost. It's clear that both parties will need to settle on an agreement before the season starts to prevent the risk of free agency.

A notable factor that could make these negotiations tricky is the recent trends in the tight-end market, a trend primarily influenced by Dalton Schultz. After a franchise tag in 2021, Schultz's performance dipped in 2022, resulting in a marked decrease in his market value. As a result, Schultz took a one-year, $6M deal to boost his standing.

The issue lies in the comparison between Schultz's and Kmet's output. Schultz's decreased performance was recorded at 577 yards and five touchdowns, whereas Kmet had a good season with 544 yards and seven touchdowns. How does this then translate to Kmet's market value?

Despite Schultz's fall, Kmet is likely to command more than $6M given that Schultz's contract was a 'prove-it' deal. However, determining exactly how much more could be the tricky part. A comparison of Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, and Dawson Knox since Kmet's entry into the NFL further complicates the situation. Kmet may not have as many touchdowns, but his statistics aren't far off from Dawson Knox's. Yet, he isn't producing as much as Schultz, and despite scoring two more touchdowns than Schultz last season, he's still trailing by eight in his career.

Adding another layer to this complex situation are the salaries of each player: Dawson Knox earns $13M annually, Dalton Schultz earns $11M annually (with a current $6M deal). According to PFF, their run blocking grades are similar, with Knox at 65.9, Schultz at 65.9, and Kmet at 65.1. The timing of Schultz's down year and Knox's long-term deal signed a year prior both affect the market.

In essence, the challenge lies in bridging the gap between a $13M annual salary and a $6.25M one. Kmet would look towards Knox's earnings, while the Chicago Bears would cite Schultz's contract. Kmet could argue Schultz's situation was unique due to timing and performance, while the Bears might propose this as the new market norm. Finding a middle ground with a $7M discrepancy could take some tough negotiations and compromise from both sides.

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Tricky Issues Surface When Thinking About Cole Kmet's Contract Extension

Is Cole Kmet the answer long-term for the Bears at tight end?

Yes4881.4 %
No1118.6 %
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