Dispelling the Myth, The Notion That the First Quarterback Selected in the NFL Draft Is Often Not the Best Choice
Challenging the Notion: The Myth of Overlooking First Overall QB Picks
The refrain "Tom Brady is the GOAT and he was drafted in the 6th round" often surfaces as a counterargument whenever there's a debate about selecting a quarterback with the top pick in the NFL Draft. While Brady's story is remarkable, it doesn't discount the fact that the league occasionally misjudges quarterback talent, as in Brady's case.
The NFL's oversight of Brady, who didn't see much playtime at Michigan and lacked athleticism, illustrates the fallibility of scouting evaluations. However, one exceptional case shouldn't overshadow the validity of other quarterback assessments made over the years.
It's true that the NFL has evolved, and scouting methods have improved. Yet, some still hold onto the belief that quarterbacks taken early in the draft often fail to live up to expectations. But is this belief grounded in reality?
To assess this claim, let's focus on the past 15 years, a period that provides a relevant sample size and encompasses quarterbacks from the modern era of the NFL. In this timeframe, quarterbacks were selected first overall in 11 out of 15 drafts. However, during the four drafts where a quarterback wasn't chosen first, none of the quarterbacks taken first at other positions emerged as the best in their class. This suggests that when there isn't a clear standout quarterback prospect, teams tend to prioritize other positions with the top pick.
Examining the 11 quarterbacks selected first overall over the past 15 years reveals that, in most cases, the consensus top quarterback in the draft class became the best quarterback in the NFL. Of the two exceptions, both Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield have maintained serviceable careers, indicating that even when the top pick doesn't pan out as the absolute best, they often remain viable starters.
Furthermore, five out of the 10 quarterbacks taken first overall have become consensus top 10 quarterbacks in the league, while eight out of 10 have established themselves as legitimate starters. These statistics refute the notion that selecting a quarterback with the first pick is inherently risky or ineffective.
Considering these findings, if the consensus among evaluators aligns with the Chicago Bears' assessment of quarterback talent in the upcoming draft, selecting Caleb Williams with the first overall pick should instill confidence among fans. The data suggests a strong likelihood that Williams not only becomes a legitimate NFL starter but also has a good chance of ascending to the ranks of the league's top quarterbacks.
In conclusion, while outliers like Tom Brady may exist, the numbers demonstrate that investing in a quarterback with the first overall pick often yields favorable results, contradicting the skepticism surrounding such selections.
| POLL | ||
9 MARS | 131 ANSWERS Dispelling the Myth, The Notion That the First Quarterback Selected in the NFL Draft Is Often Not the Best Choice Will Caleb WIlliams be the best QB in this draft class? | ||
| Yes | 27 | 20.6 % |
| No | 104 | 79.4 % |
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