Analyzing the intricate Justin Fields trade landscape.
If the Chicago Bears do decide to part ways with Justin Fields during this offseason, it's highly likely that he'll be traded. Although it's not impossible for the Bears to draft a rookie quarterback alongside Fields, the odds of this happening are quite slim.
In the event of a Fields trade, the suggested minimum price would be approximately a second-round pick, with the final deal likely involving a second-round pick in the current year and some additional compensation, such as a day three pick in the current year or a conditional pick in 2025.
Is this a reasonable expectation? To see such a market materialize, there needs to be at least two, if not three, teams interested in acquiring Fields. However, this outcome is uncertain and may depend on how teams assess the rookie quarterbacks available in the upcoming draft class.
Let's start by identifying the teams that could potentially be in the market for a new starting quarterback in 2024. We should approach this conservatively, as teams typically avoid making bold moves at the quarterback position if they already have a reliable starter, like Tua Tagovailoa or Dak Prescott.
In the AFC, potential quarterback-needy teams include the New England Patriots in the East, the Pittsburgh Steelers in the North, tentatively the Tennessee Titans in the South, and the Denver Broncos (assuming Russell Wilson is released) and the Las Vegas Raiders in the West.
In the NFC, we can consider the Washington Football Team, despite having Sam Howell, and the New York Giants, despite Daniel Jones. Additionally, we have the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings in the North, the Atlanta Falcons in the South, and possibly the New Orleans Saints in 2025, but we'll exclude them for now due to Derek Carr's contract. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also a possibility. Out West, the Los Angeles Rams might consider a developmental quarterback behind Matthew Stafford, but there's no immediate urgency. The Arizona Cardinals are committed to Kyler Murray, and the Seattle Seahawks could make a bold move with or without Geno Smith.
That adds up to 13 potential quarterback-needy teams. Upon closer examination, we can eliminate the Titans, as they invested a second-round pick in Will Levis and may give him a chance. Let's also assume Kirk Cousins stays in Minnesota, as it's unlikely the Bears would trade Fields within their division.
It's probable that Baker Mayfield will remain with the Buccaneers, and the Giants are more likely to add a veteran for competition with Daniel Jones, rather than trading for Fields. Similarly, they won't likely trade for Jayden Daniels. So, let's rule out the Giants as a potential partner.
That leaves us with the Patriots, Broncos, Falcons, and Seahawks.
One of the first three teams is likely to end up with Jayden Daniels, and it's highly probable that one of these teams will also commit to JJ McCarthy. There's also the presence of Michael Penix and Bo Nix, but for the Bears' benefit, let's assume neither of them will be drafted as year one starters.
Now, we're down to two potential landing spots for Fields. The destination of Russell Wilson could affect the situation, but if he doesn't end up on one of these four teams, it could complicate finding a market for Fields even further.
Many individuals in NFL circles believe that Justin Fields was the larger issue in Chicago, not Luke Getsy. While this perception may be disputed (and I disagree), it will undoubtedly hinder the market for Fields.
In summary, it appears that the market for Fields may have a maximum of three teams, but more likely just one or two. In such a scenario, driving up a substantial price for Fields will be challenging.
Consider the trade for Sam Darnold, which did not include a current year second-round pick; the Jets received a current year sixth-round pick and a second and fourth-round pick the following year. According to valuation charts, this package for Darnold equates to an early third-round pick in the current year, not the projected second-round pick some have suggested for Fields.
Furthermore, the fifth-year option on Fields' contract, which carries a $23 million salary in 2025, will be a significant financial commitment for any team considering him for both 2024 and 2025.
This analysis doesn't rule out the possibility of the Bears securing a second-round pick for Fields, but it suggests that it may be a buyer's market rather than a seller's market. Consequently, the Bears might need to focus on obtaining better capital in 2025 for Fields rather than additional compensation in 2024. If Ryan Poles is prioritizing the 2024 draft, it's possible that Fields might fetch no more than a third-round pick along with additional picks (likely conditional or day-three picks) in 2025.
It's still early to predict this market accurately, as the NFL Combine will provide teams with a better understanding of the rookie quarterbacks available. Teams may fall in love with a player like Penix, Nix, or McCarthy, making them less inclined to pursue a trade for Fields. Conversely, if they're unimpressed with the rookie options, a Fields trade could become more enticing.
After a close examination of the market, it's evident that hopes of receiving a first-round pick for Fields are unlikely. While a second-round pick remains a possibility with an aggressive offer from one of the few potential landing spots, Ryan Poles may need to employ creative tactics to maximize the return value if he chooses to trade Justin Fields this offseason.
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