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Anticipating a Significant Increase in Victories in Eberflus' Second Year at the Helm

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Vince Carbonneau
July 10, 2023  (10:46)
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During their debut year, GM Ryan Poles and Head Coach Matt Eberflus embarked on two core missions for the Chicago Bears: the jettisoning of costly contracts and the creation of a fresh, focused team culture. Eberflus established from the get-go that his team would operate under his H.I.T.S principle - hustle, intensity, a careful eye on turnovers, and smart gameplay. In essence, he sought players with a staunch commitment to diligence and hard-fought gameplay.

As it turned out, not all rostered players were up to these exacting standards, resulting in their trade, release, or free agency exit. Eberflus understood that a cultural shift of this magnitude demands time, and finding players who align with this mindset would be an uphill journey. This philosophy was reflected in the Bears' 3-14 record in 2022. Many are questioning if Eberflus can course-correct in the coming year. Interestingly, history seems to be in his favor, with a solid precedent of second-season success among coaches applying a similar approach to Eberflus' H.I.T.S principle.

Consider Tony Dungy: Tampa Bay went from a 6-10 first year to a 10-6 second year under his lead. Lovie Smith's Chicago Bears rose from a 5-11 in his first year to an 11-5 in his second. Even during his Tampa Bay stint, they rallied from a 2-14 in year one to a 6-10 in year two. Rod Marinelli saw a similar upward trajectory with the Detroit Lions, from 3-13 to 7-9. This suggests that Matt Eberflus could well join this trend of second-year surges.

A common thread in these turnarounds was the heightened discipline and physical conditioning evident by the second year. The teams seemed to play with renewed vigor and relentless physicality. The Bears have experienced this firsthand before, so a repeat isn't outside the realm of possibility. Unlike Smith, Eberflus hasn't inherited potential Hall of Famers like Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs. On the flip side, he has an arguably stronger quarterback situation to work with.

Few would dispute choosing Justin Fields over Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton. This seems to be Eberflus' stepping stone to success. Even if the defense isn't quite ready for the spotlight, the offense seems poised to outshine what Dungy, Smith, and Marinelli managed during their tenures. The crux of the matter is that the Bears have invested in building a specific culture and are now curating pieces that resonate with it. Historical patterns suggest that such a formula often leads to enhanced performance. Expecting an upswing of at least four games doesn't seem too far-fetched.

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Anticipating a Significant Increase in Victories in Eberflus' Second Year at the Helm

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