PFF reveals Roquan Smith's trade value
I'm sure most of you are aware that Roquan Smith is currently involved in many trade talks. He and the Bears are unable to agree on a contract that both parties feel good about and Smith then asked to be traded out of Chicago a week ago.
Well, a good question that we should ask ourselves following this news is: what could the Bears get in return for Smith?
One very important thing to keep in mind is that the NFL currently has an idea in the trade and contract market named "positional value".
Positional value is the idea that some positions are simply more valuable than others. Whether that's in the form of annual compensation (seen in surplus value), wins above replacement (WAR), demand around the league, or all of the above, it's a factor that's being considered more and more in the NFL.
As you could guess, inside linebackers are not very high on the positional value scale. While Smith is a great player and he might eventually become a Hall of Famer, his play does not necessarily translate into wins for his team.
PFF puts the projected trade value for Smith at a 2023 second-round pick, 2024 fifth-round pick. This is not that bad, honestly.
Here is what they said on Smith potentially being traded:
Projected trade value: 2023 second-round pick, 2024 fifth-round pick
Team fits: Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Commanders
Smith requested a trade on Aug. 9, and there have been several new developments since then. First, Bears general manager Ryan Poles held a press conference in response to Smith's trade request to express frustration about the negotiation process and ultimately to underscore his desire to keep Smith on the team.
The process, which involves Smith negotiating on his own behalf with the help of an advisor, hasn't been without hiccups. The NFL Management Council released a statement warning the 31 other clubs to not engage with Smith's advisor, Saint Omni, in his apparent attempts to call teams to gauge trade interest. The Bears did not grant Smith's camp permission to seek a trade, so any reciprocation would constitute tampering.
Smith was recently removed from the physically unable to perform list but has continued his camp hold-in. Head coach Matt Eberflus said at a post-practice press conference that all healthy players are expected to participate in activities, but nevertheless, the team does not appear to be at the point of issuing fines.
Since Smith was selected with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, he has amassed impressive volume numbers among off-ball linebackers:
391 solo tackles (2nd)
57 tackles for loss / no gain (2nd)
15 sacks (4th)
Smith's 78.7 coverage grade since 2018 ranks 11th among off-ball linebackers, and he was recently ranked as the 14th-best off-ball linebacker in the NFL in Sam Monson's 2022 linebacker rankings. A move to Eberflus' 4-3 base defense, where Smith is expected to play the weakside or «WILL» linebacker role after serving as the middle linebacker to start his career, is widely considered a perfect fit for his athletic profile. However, perhaps Chicago wants to see him in the new system before committing massive amounts of money.
If a trade is eventually explored, it could be tough for Chicago to recoup sufficient draft capital to justify a trade for a few reasons. First, the off-ball linebacker position has seen a devaluation across the league in recent years. And second, Smith is set to earn $9.735 million on his 2022 fifth-year option and any acquiring team would immediately have to make him the highest-paid player at his position, which would carry a price tag of at least $20 million per year.
The Seattle Seahawks' trade of multiple first-round picks for safety Jamal Adams should serve as a cautionary tale for teams around the league about the danger of such an investment at a non-premium defensive position. That being said, perhaps a few of the team fits above still explore the idea, as it seems Smith's request is a very real one.
