The Daily Pulse: A Peculiar Point Spread in the Commanders vs. Bears Matchup.
Let's Crunch the Numbers Before Placing Bets on the Thursday Night Clash. Last week, we unveiled our calculation process.
The Denver Broncos were tipped as 3.5-point favorites against the Chicago Bears. Most credible NFL power rankings would list the Bears at No. 32, with the Broncos either at No. 31 or somewhere nearby. Considering the usual 2.5 points for home-field advantage, the Broncos would have been predicted to win by around 8.5 points if the match were in Denver. However, the Bears lost, squandering their 28-7 advantage.
Now, let's factor in the Thursday night effect.
The Washington Commanders, arguably superior to the Broncos, already clinched a victory against them this season in Denver. Still, they're just a 6.5-point favorite at BetMGM against the Bears at home. This is at least two points lower than the speculative Bears-Broncos line from the previous week. These numbers seem misaligned, especially when earlier in the week, Washington's lead was merely 5.5 points.
This line is puzzling. Yes, Justin Fields showed improvement against the subpar Broncos defense, but not enough to significantly alter the Bears' standing among bookmakers. The Bears remain an underwhelming squad with a vague offensive strategy and a defense that has consistently conceded 25 or more points throughout their 14-match losing streak.
The Commanders might not be top-tier, and it's debatable if they should be favored by over a touchdown against any opponent. But it's clear that the Bears are struggling. This might not be Thursday night's highlight match, but our calculations suggest that Washington is the safer bet.
In other Thursday sporting news:
Prop Bets for Thursday Night:
Jahan Dotson's lukewarm season start is evident. With no games exceeding 40 yards, the bet is on him staying under 42.5 receiving yards tonight. Staying conservative, Cole Kmet's 32.5 yards also gets an 'under' bet, considering the Commanders' formidable defense against tight ends this season and the unpredictability of the Bears' passing game.
A Glimpse at College Football:
Two college football games are on the cards for the evening. Liberty leads as a 21.5-point favorite against Sam Houston, while Western Kentucky holds a 6-point advantage on the road against Louisiana Tech. These might offer a viewing alternative if the NFL match disappoints.
Top Betting Recommendation:The Commanders are hard to overlook. The Bears' current form hardly inspires confidence in them winning, especially away from home. Putting money on Washington, with a margin less than a touchdown, seems the most reasonable.
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