The Reasons Behind the Chicago Bears' Potential Overspend on Cole Kmet

Why might the Bears end up forking out more for Kmet?
The answer lies in the current dynamics of the tight-end market, which has taken a nosedive recently. Players like Hayden Hurst, Dalton Schultz, and Mike Gesicki were compelled to settle for one-year deals, substantially below previous market rates. While Kmet would naturally seek to leverage his value, he also contends with the market's current downward trend. He may argue that he sits a tier above those mentioned, but his performance metrics bear striking resemblance to theirs.

However, Kmet holds an ace up his sleeve – his age. At just 24, Kmet stands out among his contemporaries. To illustrate, Dalton Kincaid, also turning 24 this year, pales in comparison to Kmet's on-field statistics. Even Luke Schoonmaker, this year's third-round draft pick, is older than Kmet. Such is the young age of Kmet that if he were in this year's draft, not many eyebrows would be raised. Consider Pat Friermuth, who completed his age-24 season last year, despite being drafted a year post-Kmet.

Historically, tight ends don't showcase stellar stats early in their careers. It typically takes time for them to physically mature and acclimate to the NFL's rigors. Given this context, Kmet's position as the 12th all-time in receiving yards by a tight-end before turning 24 is no mean feat.

On his 24th birthday, Kmet will have 1,300 yards under his belt – an impressive figure when compared to Dalton Kincaid's projected 1/10th of that by his own 24th birthday.

Dalton Schultz and Mike Gesicki faced a cold market reality this year, but both players are considerably older, at 27 and 28, respectively. Hayden Hurst is hitting 30 this season. So, even if these players have similar numbers to Kmet, projections suggest that by the time Kmet reaches their age, he would have considerably outperformed them. This explains why the Chicago Bears might need to shell out more than expected to secure this budding talent.