What would it cost the Houston Texans if they traded with the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 overall pick?
According to Todd McShay from ESPN, the Chicago Bears are considering trading the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming draft. McShay reported that he heard this from scouts and executives at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama. However, the Bears need to determine if their target quarterback, Fields, is indeed their guy. With many QB-needy teams in the top 10 and looking to trade up, the Bears have a great opportunity to make a move. The concern for them is how far down the board they can move and still secure a top defensive prospect.
Pro Football Focus has predicted a potential trade between the Bears and the Houston Texans, with Houston sending their Round 1 (No. 2 overall), Round 2, and 2024 Round 4 picks for the top pick overall. According to the Drafttek trade value chart, this would result in Houston overpaying by 180 points just on the No. 2 and No. 33 overall picks alone. The chart does not consider the value of future selections.
If the Texans and Bears simply exchange picks, a comparison can be made to the 2004 NFL draft when Eli Manning refused to play for the San Diego Chargers. The New York Giants selected Philip Rivers No. 4 overall and then made a deal with San Diego, giving them Manning, their third-rounder, and first- and fifth-rounders in 2005.
According to the trade value chart, No. 1 overall is worth 3,000 points, while Rivers and the third-rounder were worth 2,065 points. The 2005 selections had to add up to the remaining 935 points for San Diego to agree to the trade.
It's important to note that the Bears and Texans would be negotiating a player swap, unlike the Rivers-Manning scenario where a player refused to play for his draft team. The Bears don't want to move too far down in the first round and miss out on their desired defensive target.
